BULLETIN – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  For the first time, RealClearPolitics now rates the House of Representatives as safely in Republican hands come election day. 

It takes 218 votes to control the House.  RCP now projects the new House as 220 Republicans, 178 Democrats, with 37 toss ups.  Of course, this has to be ratified by actual votes on election day, we have a good feeling.  Advice to Nancy:  Pack, and take the old drapes.

By contrast, the Senate remains an uphill battle.  RCP still has the Senate with 44 Republicans, 48 Dems and 8 toss ups. Republicans would have to win 7 of the 8 toss ups to gain control, not very likely.

However, if the GOP had 48 or 49 seats, the party, with some moderate Dem help, could, in practical terms, control the chamber.

RCP projects 28 Republican governors, 15 Dems, and 7 toss ups.  The governorships are particularly important in the years immediately following the Census because state governments handle redistricting of congressional seats.  A few blocks here, a few blocks there, you can change history.

Not bad, so far.  But I want to send retirement congratulations to Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray.  Both senators are ahead in their states by the narrowest of margins.  Turnout is the key.

October 23, 2010